Lodging Econometrics: Forecast for New Hotel Openings Through 2020

Debuting for the first time this quarter is Lodging Econometrics’ 2020 Forecast for New Hotel Openings. According to analysts at Lodging Econometrics (LE), the forecast for new hotel openings in 2020 is anticipated to be 1,247 projects/141,344 rooms in the United States. This is in support of the current construction pipeline, which stands at 5,312 projects/634,501 rooms, including 1,594 projects/208,509 rooms under construction, up 7% from 2017’s 4,973 projects/598,371 rooms. The pipeline has been growing moderately each quarter.

The first half of 2018 saw 434 hotels/50,476 rooms open in the U.S. with another 652 projects/75,138 rooms forecast to open by year-end. The total 2018 forecast of 1,086 projects/125,614 rooms, represents a 10% increase over the actual number of hotels opened in 2017 which finished with 983 hotels/117,736 rooms. 2019 is anticipated to open 1,186 projects/131,972 rooms.

When analyzing the top markets with the highest growth rate percentage for forecasted new hotel openings cumulatively from Q3 2018 through 2020 those markets are: Nashville, TN at 21.7%; Austin, TX at 18.1%; New York at 15.5%; Denver at 14.7%; Charlotte, NC at 14.3%; San Jose, CA at 13.9%; Seattle at 13.2%; Fort Worth, TX at 12.7%; Portland, OR at 12.4%; and Dallas at 12.2%. These markets are showing supply growth of 6.6% for that same cumulative time period. This is of note and is seemingly in excess of long-term demand growth trends. Twenty eight of the top 50 markets are anticipated to have a supply growth rate above 7% in the coming years.

The list of top markets shifts slightly when determining them by project count totals during the same time period (Q3 18–2020). New York leads all markets with 117 projects/17,766 rooms expected to open. This is followed by: Dallas with 91 projects/10,622 rooms; Houston with 80 projects/8,450 rooms; Nashville, TN with 65 projects/9,174 rooms; Austin, TX with 62 projects/6,845 rooms; Los Angeles with 59 projects/8,334 rooms; Atlanta with 59 projects/6,478 rooms; Riverside, CA with 50 projects/5,138 rooms; Denver with 49 projects/7,094 rooms; and Detroit with 49 projects/5,041 rooms.

For more information on LE’s forecast for the next few years for the lodging industry, please contact Lodging Econometrics:  (603) 427-9542 or email: [email protected]. 

LE can help you understand new hotel supply additions in every market or city across the world. The company can provide information on new construction, announced renovation, brand conversion, and open & operating hotels in its database of hotel records—available on mobile, and through its portfolio of management guidance and lodging real estate trend reports for any market in the U.S. as well as any region, country or market worldwide.

—JP Ford, SVP, director of global business development, Lodging Econometrics

—Bruce Ford, SVP, director of global business development, Lodging Econometrics

—Tom O’Gorman, VP of sales, Lodging Econometrics

 

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