Tuesday May 12th, 2009 - 11:35AM
CHICAGO—According to Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, based on its five-year forecast, RevPAR will reach $68.28 in 2013, thereby exceeding the previous RevPAR peak in 2007.
In leading up to that peak, Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels predicts RevPAR will decline 12.1% this year as a result of a 7.4% decrease in ADR and a 5.1% fall in occupancy. In 2010, the firm predicts RevPAR will bottom out and average 0.6% growth for the year. A 4.7% RevPAR growth rate is on tap for 2011.
Gradual increases in occupancy and ADR will contribute to this RevPAR growth and a return to a higher volume of hotel asset transactions.
Geographically speaking, New York and Los Angeles will not see RevPAR growth return in 2010, as they will exhibit a 6.9% and 1.4% decrease that year, respectively. But Chicago, Miami, San Francisco and Washington will see RevPAR growth remerge in 2010.
Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels’ lodging performance forecast, which is being published in its first “FocusOn: Outlook for RevPAR Turnaround” report, is based on an analysis of economic indicators that have demonstrated significant correlation to hotel performance in the past, including gross domestic product and gross metro product, U.S. per capita income, U.S. retail and food services sales, the Consumer Price Index, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and an analysis of the supply pipeline.